Thursday, October 15, 2026 · Played it? Here's how rare each one really was.
One die, four rolls, any of them a 6.
1 in 1.9 tries 51.8%
It happens 51.8% of the time. The chance of no 6 in four rolls is (5/6)⁴ = 48.2%, so at least one 6 is slightly more likely than not. Gamblers bet on this in the 1600s.
Fun fact: Gamblers in 1600s France made money on this bet. When they switched to a double 6 within 24 rolls of two dice, the odds fell to 49.1% and they started losing. The puzzle helped spark probability theory, in letters between Pascal and Fermat.
Source: Math: 1 − (5/6)⁴
Worldwide, all births.
1 in 42 babies 2.38%
About 12 of every 1,000 deliveries worldwide are twins, roughly 1 in 42 babies and 1.6 million twins a year. That's an all-time high, partly because of IVF.
Fun fact: In a school of 1,000 kids, expect about 24 twins. The world is at peak twins: about 1.6 million are born every year, the most ever.
Master, Grandmaster or Challenger. Solo queue, North America, August 2026.
1 in 137 players 0.73%
0.73% of ranked NA players were Master or above.
Fun fact: About 5 times more players are in Iron, the lowest rank, than in Master and above combined.
A 5-card poker hand, no draws.
1 in 694 hands 0.14%
3,744 of the 2,598,960 possible hands are full houses.
Fun fact: A full house shows up 6 times as often as four of a kind. That's exactly why it ranks lower: in poker, the rarer hand always wins.
Source: Wikipedia: Poker probability
Standard IQ scale: average 100, standard deviation 15.
1 in 31,574 people 0.0032%
Four standard deviations up, about 3 in 100,000. Most IQ tests can't measure reliably this far out, so treat this as what the scale implies.
Fun fact: Going from 145 to 160 makes it about 43 times rarer. A city of 1 million would have about 32 people this high.
Source: Math: normal curve, z = 4