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Raredle No. 11: the answers

Thursday, October 22, 2026 · Played it? Here's how rare each one really was.

What are the odds of you being able to swim without help?

Worldwide, people aged 15+, 2019 poll in 142 countries.

1 in 2.2 people 45.0%

In the 2019 Lloyd's Register Foundation World Risk Poll, 55% of people said they can't swim unassisted, so 45% can.

Fun fact: Most adults on Earth can't swim. There's a big gap by gender: 57% of men said they can, but only 32% of women.

Source: Gallup, Lloyd's Register Foundation World Risk Poll (2021)

What are the odds of a Duolingo user having a streak of a year or longer?

Monthly users, end of 2024.

1 in about 12 users 8.57%

Duolingo reported over 10 million users with streaks of a year or longer, against 116.7 million monthly active users in Q4 2024.

Fun fact: That's over 10 million people who haven't missed a single day for a year. In a class of 30 learners, expect about 2 or 3.

Source: Duolingo Q4 2024 shareholder letter (Feb 2025)

What are the odds of an applicant getting into Harvard College?

Class of 2028, the last year Harvard published full numbers.

1 in about 28 applicants 3.59%

Harvard admitted 1,937 of 54,008 applicants, 3.59%. It has stopped releasing these numbers publicly since then.

Fun fact: That's a little easier than rolling snake eyes (1 in 36). The catch: you only get one roll a year.

Source: Harvard Gazette (March 2024)

What are the odds of rolling snake eyes (double 1s) with two dice?

One roll of two regular dice.

1 in 36 rolls 2.78%

Two dice have 36 equally likely results, and only one is a pair of 1s.

Fun fact: Snake eyes and double 6s tie for the least likely totals. A 7 is 6 times as common, which is why craps is built around it.

Source: Math: 6 × 6 = 36

What are the odds of a random person on Earth being a Master Sommelier?

Court of Master Sommeliers members worldwide, July 2026, vs 2026 world population

1 in 27,761,466 people less than 0.0001%

There were 299 Master Sommeliers worldwide in July 2026 (Harpers). World population in 2026 is about 8.30 billion (UN WPP 2024). 8.30B ÷ 299 ≈ 27.8 million.

Fun fact: There are about 6 chess grandmasters for every Master Sommelier on Earth: roughly 1,765 grandmasters vs just 299 Master Sommeliers.

Source: Harpers, July 2026 (299 MS); UN World Population Prospects 2024 via PopulationPyramid